How Do We Determine the Butterfly Forecast?

As you visit Butterfly Ridge, or look at the website, you will see “Today’s Butterfly Forecast”. How do we determine whether any given day’s forecast should be excellent, good, or poor?

There is actually a lot that goes into this determination. Some of the variables include actual abundance of butterflies, which species of butterflies are present, current weather conditions, forecasted weather conditions, and butterfly observation skills of our visitors.

Let’s consider today, Sunday April 20, 2025. For mid-April, current butterfly abundance is actually quite impressive. So, if I am comparing April 20, 2025 to other April 20th’s, I would give a forecast of “excellent”. However, as I write this at 9:30AM on April 20th, the temperature is in the low 50’s, which will suppress butterfly activity significantly, so knock that “excellent” down to a “poor”. However, it is supposed to warm up into the 70’s today, so, knock that “poor” back up to “excellent” for the afternoon. However, it is supposed to be cloudy this afternoon which will suppress butterfly activity, not to the degree of cold temperatures, but still to a degree. We will adjust our forecast down to the excellent side of “good”.

Now, while we do have a nice supply of butterflies flying currently, many of them are quite small. While the elfins are really cool butterflies, and relatively uncommon, their tininess (roughly the size of your fingernail) will make them very difficult to spot. Pictured above is Eastern Pine Elfin on the left and Henry’s Elfin on the right. Because these butterflies, along with the duskywings and azures that are also flying, are so small, we will knock our forecast from the excellent side of “good” to simply “good”.

The final factor to consider is the observation skills of our visitors. Field butterfly enthusiasts will be able to spot elfins and azures, so for those folks, we reset our forecast to “excellent”. However, most of our visitors are not field butterfly enthusiasts, although they may make several trips each year to their local butterfly conservatory. In a non-conservatory setting, these people will struggle spotting even larger butterflies. So, for those folks, the forecast should be set at “poor”.

Therefore, how do we determine the forecast? By some criteria, current butterfly viewing is “excellent”, however weather conditions would warrant a forecast downgrade to “good”. But, since so many of our butterflies right now are so small and many of our visitors will struggle seeing them, we need to set a forecast which will be accurate for those folks’ reality, a forecast of “poor”.

Taking all of these things under consideration, the forecast for today is set on the edge between “good” and “poor”. What this means in reality, some people will be pleasantly surprised, while others will be disappointed. And on a day like today, that is the best we can do! To improve your odds of spotting our butterflies, I encourage you to visit our You Tube channel and watch the Butteflynding video (Butterflynding). We wish you all the best in your butterfly searches!!